P = Total Points received in a match

M = Was the match won or drawn?

I = How important was the match? (ranging from friendly to WC)

T = How strong was the opposing team in FIFA ranking position?

C = How strong was the opposing Confederation?

**P = M x I x T x C**

__M = Points for Match Result__W: 3 points

D: 1 points

L: 0 points

*In a penalty shootout the winner gets 2 points and the loser gets 1 point

__I = Importance of Match__1.0 - Friendly Match

2.5 - FIFA World Cup qualifier or confederation-level qualifier

3.0 - Confederation-level final competition or Confederations Cup

4.0 - World Cup

__T = Strength of Opposing Team__no. 1 = 200

no. 22 = 178

no. 50 = 150

no. 78 = 122

no. 100 = 100

no. 150 = 50

etc.

*Teams ranked 150th and below are assigned a minimum value of 50

__C = Strength of Confederation__1.00 - UEFA and CONMEBOL

0.88 - CONCACAF

0.86 - CAF

0.85 - AFC and OFC

*based on the number of victories by confederation at the last 3 World Cups

__Examples of recent USA games__**USA v Algeria 2010 World Cup (USA 1-0 Algeria)**

M = 3 points for USA win

I = 4.0 for World Cup match

T = 170 for Strength of Opposing team Algeria (30)

C = 0.87 for Avg. Strength of Confederations (CONCACAF and CAF)

P = 3 x 4 x 170 x 0.87 = 1,774.8 points

**USA v Spain 2009 Confederations Cup (USA 2-0 Spain)**

M = 3 points for USA win

I = 3.0 for Confederations Cup match

T = 200 for Strength of Opposing team Spain (1)

C = 0.94 for Avg. Strength of Confederations (CONCACAF and UEFA)

P = 3 x 3 x 200 x 0.94 = 1,692.0 points

**USA v Mexico 2009 Home World Cup Qualifier (USA 2-0 Mexico)**

M = 3 points for USA win

I = 2.5 for World Cup Qualifier

T = 176 for Strength of Opposing Team Mexico (24)

C = 0.88 for Strength of Confederation (CONCACAF)

P = 3 x 2.5 x 176 x 0.88 = 1,161.6 points

**USA v Poland Friendly October 2010 (USA 2-2 Poland)**

M = 1 point for USA draw

I = 1.0 for Friendly Match

T = 131 for Strength of Opposing Team Poland (69)

C = 0.94 for Avg. Strength of Confederations (CONCACAF and UEFA)

P = 1 x 1 x 131 x 0.94 = 123.1 points

Four years are taken into account for current FIFA rankings. Matches older than 12 months are worth less points.

100% = Match average from the last 12 months (2010)

50% = Match average from the previous year (2009)

30% = Match average from year 3 (2008)

20% = Match average from year 4 (2007)

0% = Matches older than 4 years

The point totals listed on the FIFA rankings are the average points per game over the past 4 seasons added together (using the percentages listed above).

Here is a quick made up example of how it works using round numbers.

Year - Pts. - GP - PCT = Total

2007 - 8000 / 10 x 20% = 160.0

2008 - 5000 / 10 x 30% = 150.0

2009 - 9000 / 10 x 50% = 450.0

2010 - 6000 / 10 x 100% = 600.0

Total = 1360 (This is the number you see in FIFA rankings)

Points from a single match can range from 0 for a loss to about 2400 for a win over the top ranked team in a World Cup Final.

Thank you!

ReplyDeleteThis is an excellent and interesting breakdown, thanks so much for putting it together!

ReplyDeletewow it id very complicated

ReplyDeleteYou must be missing a divisor somewhere. I think the points are divided by 100 or 10 somewhere. USA has only ~800 points for the last 4 years, so no way did they get 1774.8 points from that most recent match against Algeria here. Spain has 1880 points total, and they won the World Cup.

ReplyDeletehttp://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html

indicated by messi in twitter!

ReplyDeletevery good, before this i understand what is fifa ranking!

thank you!

Thanks guys.

ReplyDelete@Anonymous

Sorry, I didn't really explain that part of it.

The point totals listed on the FIFA rankings are the average points per game over the past 4 seasons added together (using the percentages listed above).

Here is a quick made up example of how it works using round numbers.

Year - Pts. - GP - PCT = Total

2007 - 8000 / 10 x 20% = 160.0

2008 - 5000 / 10 x 30% = 150.0

2009 - 9000 / 10 x 50% = 450.0

2010 - 6000 / 10 x 100% = 600.0

Total = 1360 (This is the number you see in FIFA rankings)

Oh, thanks Steve. So this actually means that playing matches and losing them actually *brings down* your score? Wow, I thought playing could only add points. Well technically, it is only adding, but by taking the mean you could be hurting your score.

ReplyDeleteNo problem.

ReplyDeleteTo be honest, before researching this post last night and this morning I knew nothing about this process and I thought the same as you.

To answer your question, yes, since a loss is worth 0 points it would bring down your overall average point total.

Does FIFA explain how exactly the strenght of confederation is calculated? I mean is there a mathematical formula to assign a score between 0,85 and 1 ?

ReplyDeleteI can't find anything specific about the way it's calculated. Here is what FIFA's website has to say about it:

ReplyDelete"The confederations' weighting are calculated based on the number of wins the representatives of a

confederation in the final competitions of the last three World Cups have recorded against teams representing the other confederations. For example, the more times that AFC teams beat teams from other confederations, the higher the weighting for the AFC. For statistical reasons, the lowest possible weighting is 0.85 (weakest confederation) and the highest is 1.0 (strongest confederation)."

I bet the one who came up with it would say that it is not rocket science.

ReplyDeleteI have my doubts about these confederations weightings. I think FIFA might have made a mistake in their last update:

ReplyDeleteConfederation weightings: An in-depth look

Debit, credits and hide it! That's what my accountant says!

ReplyDeleteToo complicated for my blood!

ReplyDelete